The board — Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Every game on today's slate: the model's favorite, its confidence, the best price across the books, and the prediction markets' contract price — amber when the market beats every book. Under each confidence figure is what that price needs to break even — bet it all season and you'd have to win that often just to end level. Most days the price asks for more than the model gives, and that gap is the house's cut. Every call gets graded here when games go final.
LINE CHECK
odds pulled 6:35 PM ET
· every 30 min, 7:05 AM–10:35 PM · next 7:05 PM
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MLB 15 games
| Time | Game | Model favorite | Confidence | Best line | Markets | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:41 PM | New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.4% needs 56.5% | -130 Caesars | 56¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:41 PM | San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.7% needs 61.4% | -159 ESPN BET | 60¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:41 PM | San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | San Diego Padres | 55.5% needs 55.9% | -127 Caesars | 56¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:41 PM | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 61.8% needs 63.4% | -173 ESPN BET | 62¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:46 PM | Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Atlanta Braves | 57.1% needs 57.8% | -137 Caesars | 57¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:46 PM | Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 52.2% needs 53.9% | -117 Caesars | 52¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:41 PM | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 53.2% needs 54.3% | -119 Caesars | 55¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:41 PM | Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.6% needs 51.9% | -108 Caesars | 50¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:41 PM | Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 51.1% needs 51.7% | -107 Caesars | 50¢ Polymarket | scheduled |
| 8:06 PM | Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 66.4% needs 67.7% | -210 FanDuel | 66¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 8:11 PM | Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Chicago White Sox | 51.0% needs 52.4% | -110 Fanatics | 50¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 8:41 PM | Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Baltimore Orioles | 58.0% needs 58.7% | -142 ESPN BET | 57¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 9:39 PM | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | New York Yankees | 62.8% needs 64.4% | -181 ESPN BET | 62¢ Polymarket | scheduled |
| 9:41 PM | Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.9% needs 55.0% | -122 Caesars | 55¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 10:11 PM | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.7% needs 65.5% | -190 BetMGM | 64¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
Preseason — shown, never counted
The model calls preseason football the same way it calls everything else, and now you can check it. But starters play a series and the result turns on third-stringers, so none of this enters the record, the hit rate, or any published number — including the tally below.
19–28 across 47 exhibition games, 40.4%
Every preseason call, game by game
| Date | Game | Called | Confidence | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans NFL preseason | Tennessee Titans | 50.9% | 24-15 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-29 | Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts NFL preseason | Indianapolis Colts | 56.4% | 25-16 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos NFL preseason | Denver Broncos | 62.9% | 6-34 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Philadelphia Eagles NFL preseason | Philadelphia Eagles | 56.6% | 30-13 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys NFL preseason | Dallas Cowboys | 61.9% | 27-24 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers NFL preseason | Green Bay Packers | 50.6% | 38-42 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Jacksonville Jaguars NFL preseason | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 60.4% | 0-19 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | New York Giants @ New York Jets NFL preseason | New York Giants | 55.2% | 23-6 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins NFL preseason | Atlanta Falcons | 67.9% | 17-12 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers NFL preseason | Houston Texans | 52.1% | 13-16 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens NFL preseason | Baltimore Ravens | 63.0% | 3-41 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | Los Angeles Rams @ Los Angeles Chargers NFL preseason | Los Angeles Chargers | 60.6% | 20-18 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-27 | New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns NFL preseason | New England Patriots | 56.3% | 13-37 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-27 | San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders NFL preseason | Las Vegas Raiders | 59.7% | 18-12 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-27 | Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills NFL preseason | Buffalo Bills | 55.1% | 27-28 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-23 | Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans NFL preseason | Tennessee Titans | 57.9% | 16-19 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals NFL preseason | Dallas Cowboys | 54.5% | 34-13 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL preseason | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 63.3% | 15-16 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals NFL preseason | Chicago Bears | 62.3% | 9-27 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots NFL preseason | Philadelphia Eagles | 53.2% | 21-24 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins NFL preseason | New York Giants | 60.5% | 26-3 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams NFL preseason | New Orleans Saints | 52.2% | 0-34 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts NFL preseason | Indianapolis Colts | 59.4% | 34-6 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns NFL preseason | Cleveland Browns | 56.8% | 31-7 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings NFL preseason | Minnesota Vikings | 56.7% | 13-3 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-22 | Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions NFL preseason | Detroit Lions | 50.4% | 13-17 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-21 | Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos NFL preseason | Denver Broncos | 69.1% | 33-13 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-21 | Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars NFL preseason | Carolina Panthers | 55.2% | 34-17 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-21 | New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers NFL preseason | Pittsburgh Steelers | 54.3% | 17-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-20 | San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers NFL preseason | Los Angeles Chargers | 53.2% | 41-17 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-20 | Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans NFL preseason | Las Vegas Raiders | 54.4% | 22-20 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks NFL preseason | Seattle Seahawks | 54.7% | 17-7 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens NFL preseason | Philadelphia Eagles | 62.1% | 7-24 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Los Angeles Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs NFL preseason | Kansas City Chiefs | 54.1% | 20-12 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints NFL preseason | New Orleans Saints | 58.1% | 24-20 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills NFL preseason | Buffalo Bills | 59.3% | 14-29 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears NFL preseason | Cleveland Browns | 57.3% | 10-34 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants NFL preseason | Minnesota Vikings | 52.2% | 13-10 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders NFL preseason | Miami Dolphins | 61.2% | 7-20 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons NFL preseason | Denver Broncos | 60.2% | 27-7 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets NFL preseason | New York Jets | 66.6% | 24-16 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers NFL preseason | Tennessee Titans | 71.8% | 19-13 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans NFL preseason | Houston Texans | 51.0% | 27-7 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders NFL preseason | Las Vegas Raiders | 60.0% | 27-14 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals NFL preseason | Cincinnati Bengals | 71.0% | 14-16 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers NFL preseason | Green Bay Packers | 58.3% | 9-28 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-06 | Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals NFL preseason | Carolina Panthers | 54.2% | 33-30 | ✓ |
Read it for fun, not as evidence — a preseason sample is small, the lineups are not the ones that play in September, and we would not publish this number as a claim about anything.
Want the full history? The record — every call we've ever published, graded automatically.